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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.